San Diego – In late June, The Tarrance Group conducted a scientific poll of voters in the 50th Congressional District.
According to the summary memo on the polling research, pollster Dave Sackett writes: “Carl DeMaio is the top performing Republican candidate on every different potential iteration of a ballot test and holds leads over both Duncan Hunter and Darrell Issa on primary ballot tests that include each of them.”
“I’m grateful for the support we are receiving from every part of the district, but election day is always the only poll that really matters so we are taking nothing for granted and working hard each and every day to listen to voters and win their support,” said DeMaio.
Carl DeMaio Has Strongest Favorability Ratings of Any GOP Candidate
Three candidates have high name-ID in the district, but only Carl DeMaio has an overwhelmingly net positive rating.
Among Republican primary voters, DeMaio maintains a seventy-four percent (74%) favorable rating – the best of all three candidates. Trump voters, as well as both social and fiscal conservatives, view him favorably and view him to be conservative.
DeMaio’s appeal extends to Independent/DTS voters as well. Among Independent primary voters, DeMaio scores a solid 48% favorable rating. In contrast, Duncan Hunter’s unfavorable rating among Independent voters is up at 66% – while only 15% of Independent voters view DeMaio negatively.
Ballot Tests: In Every Scenario, Carl DeMaio Wins Primary
The poll tested three different candidate fields to examine voter preferences in the event of different candidates running for office. No matter what combination of candidates, Carl DeMaio wins the primary to advance to the runoff against the lone Democrat candidate – each and every time.
In addition, each field of candidates was tested both before and after messaging. First Ballot Tests gauge how voters would vote if the election were held today without any additional messaging or information provided to them. Second Ballot Tests gauge how voters would vote after positive and negative statements are read about the candidates to simulate messaging during a campaign. DeMaio had a solid lead in both First and Second ballot tests in each candidate combination.
NOTE: The lesser candidates examined in this poll and other polls were State Senator Brian Jones, Joel Anderson, Bill Wells, Sam Abed, Matt Rahn, and Larry Wilske. In those tests, none of these candidates received more than single-digit support.